Invest in North Korea? Probably not.

3 weeks ago I read this report on East West Center from 2010. 
Here is an extract: "There is evidence that the demographic profile of those who have left North Korea and landed in the south may be more similar to their compatriots than is often thought. Early defectors from North Korea were typically elites- higher ranking party or military personel- many whom took strongly ideological positions vis-a-vis the North. Over time, the demographics of the refugee population have shifted dramatically, and now include an ample representation of workers and farmers and those with only a basic education." 


These refugees are no longer the well looked after 'wavering' elites who perhaps know what's on the other side of the wall, these are members of the 'core' in society, the people that make it work. 

"Partly due to economic exigency (demand), partly due to repression, private defiance of the government takes the form of "everyday forms of resistance," such as listening to foreign media and engaging in market activities. Although not overtly political, these actions have long-term political consequences." 


In 2011 the North Korean economy grew by 0.8% after contracting by 0.5% in 2010 according to the Bank of Korea. The South Korean central bank estimated that forest industries grew by 5.3% and construction grew by nearly 4%. BBC, North Korean 'economy expands'. Farming and fishing  make up about 23% of the economy. 


The reason the economy did so badly in 2010 was as a result of bad weather and massive power shortages. China stepped in and offered to set up mining ventures and by buying billions of dollars-worth of minerals. 


China has long argued that North Korea should be "more like China". The North Korean regime however distrusts the Chinese model because of the fear that it will cause social unrest. China is growing impatient with the North Korean dictatorship, telling them that if they don't reform their economy there won't be any more support in form of food aid and other bonuses. 


Perhaps this recent impatience is a cunning plan to help the Chinese economy which at present is confronted by a hard landing after 20 years of phenomenal growth. Both North Korea and China are ruled by regime and both face the prospect of social unrest. If China were to contend social unrest, word would undoubtably find North Korean ears. Could this mutual regime destruction be what's behind the expansion of the North Korean economy? 


BBC, North Korea show for Kim jong-un with Disney characters

At the core of the issue with North Korea is that the Chinese regime a major ally with Pyongyang cannot afford a democratic country in such a close proximity to China.