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Wednesday 30 January 2013

The economy of the future?


What is "Resilient dynamism", the buzz word being conjured up on the magic mountains of Switzerland by business and political leaders at this year's Davos summit?  

Resilience/Resilient - To bounce back, implying the willingness to return to a former state as a result of misfortune or setback.

Dynamism - This could refer to the continuous change and progression of an energy, it may well be the mechanism or spring that is responsible for this energy or life force. Dynamism is also a scientific explanation used in metaphysical cosmology. 


Both words are similar in the sense that you need one to achieve the other. 

When discussed in relation to evolution this would describe the precise moment of evolution, the moment a species evolves or risks being consigned to extinction.

Evolution revolves around environmental circumstance and the pressures a species may find itself under. The environment dictates this change.

The world economy like a tree allows growth, pollination and after a long winter, rejuvenation.  

Using this tree as a metaphor, I could compare the current economic crisis to a long winter. There have been worse winters.  Not all economies have the same seasons if that makes sense. Trade is seasonal, Australia for example is enjoying an era of stability and growth, a summer season. 

The question is not how to recover from a long winter but how to become Evergreen, the tree capable of growth that survives all seasons and in various climates. 

The Evergreen tree can be used as a metaphor for continual renewal. This is nature's proof of adaptation, it is both versatile and calculating. In evolution, this is nature displaying her "resilience" to the Sun that dictates the "dynamism" of the seasons, a god-like balance.  

How about looking at trade from the universe's perspective, if it has one? In metaphysical cosmology "dynamism" is the interaction that takes place between elements without making contact through modes or harmonic motion, thus yielding all phenomena in the universe including expansion. 

This in short is dark energy. 

Stock trading or prediction markets could be compared to the dark energy found in the universe. They are within their own universe. The harmonic motion of the world's capital is the interaction that takes place between cities/elements or matter.

The universe hypothetically depends on dark energy as the accelerating force of its expansion and growth, beating the attractive force of gravity. This was not always the case. When the universe was young, astronomers believe dark energy's impact was small and gravity dominated.

Scientists ultimately would want to harness dark matter or energy to solve the world's future energy crisis. A deeper understanding of dark energy would lead to more effective processes and equations. If this understanding would improve scientific predictability of the universe the world sits in, perhaps this discovery would lead to more accurate predictability of the financial universe's elemental interactions. 

If dark energy has it's place in the universe it likely does on Earth too. 

BS computer trading/virtual markets have their place within the current financial system. This trend will likely increase and continue to do so despite financial computer algorithms causing major disruptions and concerns and despite their susceptibility to manipulation and fraud. 

Algorithmic-trade is responsible for more than 1/4 of all the market's trades. This trend will only increase as Quantum finance, computing and science becomes more prevalent in trading. A single quantum computer could examine trillions of ways to trade a stock or asset. 

This technology would allow much faster and more accurate predictions than any system used today. This, coupled with advanced encryption, could be the mechanism that allows markets to work in a futuristic synchronised harmonious motion. Like the tree it must be calculating, versatile and compensational. The world's wealth and resources being the Sun that dictates the "dynamism" of environment and seasons. 

Could this be the future of the financial universe, allowing computerised dark energy to reign supreme over the traditional gravity of human/government controlled trade? 

The markets running free is a daunting prospect. 

This is not the first time it has been suggested either. The Austrian WW2 soldier turned economist and forward thinker Friedrich Hayek suggested detaching financial control from the hands of the state. That "the past instability of the market economy is the consequence of the exclusion of the most important regulator of the market mechanism, money, from itself being regulated by the market process." 

He didn't completely fire government from the economic equation. Government should perform tasks the free market is incapable of. He concluded government has a role to play, more specifically as a safety net. "There is no reason why, in a society which has reached the general level of wealth ours has, the first kind of security should not be guaranteed to all without endangering general freedom." Hayek said that government has a role in preventing fraud and deception and this includes the exploitation of ignorance. 

An algorithmic-trade market economy and the government "safety net" that protects society's well being. Hayek believed this 'energy reserve' was government's place in the economy and society. 

If 3/4 of the the world's market economy were run by quantum algorithmic-trade it would require every nation to work together. It would require a new breed of banker. A hybrid equipped with a deeper blend of scientific and moral understanding and mathematical predictions, bringing the ethics of science to finance.

The traditional banker becomes the financial astronomer, there would certainly be fewer of them. I see this role as someone who cares for the world/nation's stability and secures direction before wealth and opportunity.

For capitalism to be truly like the Evergreen it must sacrifice greed for security, and luck for certainty and efficiency.  To evolve it must be bold, it must prove resilient. 

Following the current pattern of civilisation's evolution, it is evident that with population growth, the trend is democratisation. Handing power to the ordinary, socialism without the socialist. This is Democratisation. This is a natural progression, there is no reason to believe that the world's economy, stock market and companies will not follow a similar pattern. 

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